Totals: Sportsbet quoting 3.5% above sharp consensus at 2.06, 17 hours to tip
What happened: Final score: 101–78. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-5.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 0 minutes after detection before the edge closed.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 16.9 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—17 hours before Las Vegas Aces vs Connecticut Sun (WNBA)—the totals market has split. Sportsbet's decimal odds of 2.06 on one side sit 3.5% above the convergence point of independent sharp operators. The mispricing is active at this moment; the window to act remains open.
That outlier quotation measures 5.2 standard deviations from consensus clustering—well beyond the threshold of random fluctuation. This is structural disagreement among pricing sources, not daily chop.
The consensus aggregate draws from 92 independent sharp sources. The fair value behind this edge belongs to distributed professional analysis, not a single book's view.
Two historically profitable patterns from our database align with this signal. The stronger pattern has realized +17.1% ROI when fully settled.
The track record runs long in this segment. Basketball totals at mid-range odds have accumulated +1.0% ROI across 84 settled bets in our historical record when similar signals triggered.
Mispricings this large compress quickly. Prior edges in this exact market segment have typically tightened back toward consensus within about 18 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks
· WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky
@ 2.08
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
BC.Game
2.08
+3.5%
betplay
2.08
+3.5%
rivalry
2.08
+3.5%
betwhale
2.08
+3.5%
Heritage Sports
2.04
+1.6%
Betway
2.00
-0.4%
FanDuel
2.00
-0.4%
Bet99
1.95
-2.8%
espn-bet
1.95
-2.8%
theScore
1.95
-2.8%
DraftKings
1.95
-2.8%
BetRight
1.94
-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Las Vegas Aces vs Connecticut Sun
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 21, 2026 04:01 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).