French Ligue 2 · Soccer · Aug 21, 2026 18:00 UTC · avg book margin 7.3%

SochauxvsGuingamp

PointsBet AU is paying 6.4% over the sharp consensus in the draw-no-bet market, 3 hours before kickoff

What happened: Final score: 1–0. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.08 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-34.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 3 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Sochaux vs Guingamp — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at PointsBet AU2.04Fair price1.92+6.4% above fair

Omenizer detected 10 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 3.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

3 hours before Sochaux vs Guingamp (French Ligue 2), bookmakers disagree about the draw-no-bet market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 6.4% above the sharp consensus at PointsBet AU, at decimal odds of 2.04. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

3 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.

This signal fits 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +21.9% on settled bets.

Edges like this don't wait for kickoff: in this market, they have typically held for about 25 hours before the price corrects.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Sochaux vs Guingamp is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 21, 2026 20:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).