WNBA · Basketball · Aug 22, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.8%

New York LibertyvsIndiana Fever

Marca Apuestas is paying 3.0% over the sharp consensus in the moneyline market, 7 hours before tip-off

What happened: Final score: 109–102. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +17.1% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 8 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Marca Apuestas2.47Fair price2.40+3.0% above fair

Omenizer detected 19 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 7.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

7 hours before New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever (WNBA), bookmakers disagree about the moneyline market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 3.0% above the sharp consensus at Marca Apuestas, at decimal odds of 2.47. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

One price sits 3.1 standard deviations away from where the rest of the market has settled — a genuine outlier, not ordinary noise.

5 independent sharp sources price this market, so the fair line behind that edge isn't one book's opinion.

This signal fits 1 historically profitable pattern from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +11.9% on settled bets.

Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — basketball moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +7.2% ROI across 1452 settled bets tracked on our board.

Edges like this don't wait for tip-off: in this market, they have typically held for about 23 hours before the price corrects.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks · WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky @ 2.08
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.9%
Entry edge
+3.5%
Edge near close
+1.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.01
Fair price (no-vig)
2.12
Entry odds
Quality
85/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
2.6%
Recommended stake
3.3%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
BC.Game2.08+3.5%
betplay2.08+3.5%
rivalry2.08+3.5%
betwhale2.08+3.5%
Heritage Sports2.04+1.6%
Betway2.00-0.4%
FanDuel2.00-0.4%
Bet991.95-2.8%
espn-bet1.95-2.8%
theScore1.95-2.8%
DraftKings1.95-2.8%
BetRight1.94-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 23, 2026 02:41 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).