ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis · Aug 31, 2026 13:10 UTC · avg book margin 6.4%

Sean CueninvsMax Alcala Gurri

1–2: the 6.4% edge flagged before kickoff cashed — and the closing line confirmed it

How it ended, price by price: Sean Cuenin vs Max Alcala Gurri — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at theScore2.05Fair price1.93+6.4% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 603 live signals across 247 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Before Sean Cuenin vs Max Alcala Gurri (ATP Challenger Tour) kicked off, our board flagged the moneyline market: one price sat 6.4% above the sharp consensus at theScore, at decimal odds of 2.05. Bettors following the signal took that price while it lasted.

Final score: 1–2. The bet cashed, returning +1.05 units on a flat 1-unit stake.

The part that matters long-run: by kickoff the market had moved toward the flagged side — the price closed +3.8% better than where we caught it (positive closing-line value). CLV is how professionals judge a bet, because results are noisy and closing prices are not.

Signals in this segment — tennis moneyline, mid-range odds — have returned +6.2% ROI across 3646 settled bets on our board.

This page was written by the same engine that flags edges like this every day, before kickoff — not after. The live board shows them while the window is still open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Sean Cuenin vs Max Alcala Gurri is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Sep 02, 2026 12:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).