MLB · Baseball · Sep 09, 2026 18:45 EDT · avg book margin 5.2%

Boston Red SoxvsLos Angeles Angels

Hard Rock is paying 48.9% over the sharp consensus in the totals market, 13 hours before first pitch

Offered at Hard Rock3.20Fair price2.15+48.9% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 510 live signals across 188 matches, found the same way.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
99
Omen Score
+48.8%
Edge vs sharp consensus
5
Confidence
1
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Over 5.5 @ 3.20 — best price at Hard Rock
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
tailgate exchangeBoston Red Sox1.61+2.8%
prophet-xLos Angeles Angels2.92-1.1%
underdog-predictionsBoston Red Sox1.54-2.0%
prophet-xBoston Red Sox1.50-4.4%
tailgate exchangeLos Angeles Angels2.56-13.3%
underdog-predictionsLos Angeles Angels2.50-15.3%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

13 hours before Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels (MLB), bookmakers disagree about the totals market — and one side of that disagreement is currently priced 48.9% above the sharp consensus at Hard Rock, at decimal odds of 3.20. This is a live edge, not a post-mortem: the window is open as this page is generated.

This signal fits 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook — the strongest has realized +18.2% on settled bets.

Similar bets have paid before: signals in this exact segment — baseball totals, mid-range odds — have returned +18.9% ROI across 52 settled bets tracked on our board.

Edges like this don't wait for first pitch: in this market, they have typically held for about 4 hours before the price corrects.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).