Brazilian Serie A · Soccer · Sep 12, 2026 17:00 -03 · avg book margin 5.9%

ChapecoensevsInternacional

Chapecoense 1–2 Internacional: 15.3% mispricing at Hard Rock repriced before kickoff—closing-line value validated the pick

How it ended, price by price: Chapecoense vs Internacional — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Hard Rock (Illinois)2.40Fair price2.08+15.3% above fair

Omenizer detected 20 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Hours before Chapecoense and Internacional squared off in Brazilian Serie A, the detection system surfaced an Asian handicap mispricing: Hard Rock (Illinois) was quoting decimal 2.40, which sat 15.3% above the sharp consensus. That pricing gap created a brief execution window.

Chapecoense fell 1–2. A flat 1-unit stake at 2.40 returned +1.40 units.

What professionals examine is closing-line value, not the scoreline itself. The market repriced +2.6% toward the flagged side between detection and kickoff—that systematic movement is what validates an edge long-term, because individual match outcomes are variance and repricing is signal.

The algorithm that identified this mispricing runs before every kickoff, surfacing pricing gaps while execution windows remain open. The live board displays flagged inefficiencies during that window—not in retrospective analysis after the match concludes.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Chapecoense vs Internacional is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Sep 13, 2026 13:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).