Italian Serie B · Soccer · Sep 13, 2026 17:15 CEST · avg book margin 7.6%

AvellinovsPalermo

17.9% mispricing evaporated into a 1–1 draw, but the market repriced toward it before the whistle

How it ended, price by price: Avellino vs Palermo — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at 888sport2.50Fair price2.12+17.9% above fair

Omenizer detected 7 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Hours before Avellino and Palermo met in Italian Serie B, the detection system identified an Asian handicap inefficiency: 888sport was quoting decimal odds of 2.50, a 17.9% deviation above the sharp consensus. That pricing gap opened a brief window; bettors who captured that quote executed before the line moved.

The match ended 1–1. On the scoreboard alone, the bet failed—single game outcomes are essentially coin tosses around any edge. We report them regardless of direction.

What professionals measure is closing-line value. Between detection and kickoff, the market had shifted +1.3% in favor of the flagged side—that repricing is the signal that repeats. Individual match results are variance; systematic market movement toward your price is the pattern that compounds.

Detection runs before every kickoff, surfacing pricing inefficiencies while execution windows remain open. This page was generated in advance of the match, not constructed after settlement. The live board displays flagged mispricing during that window—not in retrospective review.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Avellino vs Palermo is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

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Record settled · last updated Sep 13, 2026 18:24 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).