Italian Serie A · Soccer · Sep 14, 2026 18:30 CEST

TorinovsRoma

Totals market shows stake overvaluing by 2.7% to sharp consensus, 21 hours out

Offered at stake2.20Fair price2.14+2.7% above fair

Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
dogg_houseDraw4.50+3.0%
PointsBet (Australia)Roma1.67+2.2%
PointsBet (Ontario)Roma1.67+1.9%
betfair-exDraw4.40+0.7%
Betfair Exchange (Australia)Draw4.40+0.7%
matchbookDraw4.40+0.7%
1xbetDraw4.40+0.7%
Mise-o-jeuRoma1.63-0.4%
SX.betDraw4.35-0.5%
Hard Rock (Illinois)Roma1.62-0.6%
Hard Rock (Florida)Roma1.62-0.6%
casumoRoma1.62-1.1%
TwinSpiresRoma1.62-1.1%
RushbetRoma1.62-1.1%
Desert DiamondRoma1.62-1.1%
Four WindsRoma1.62-1.1%
sugarhouseRoma1.62-1.1%
betriversRoma1.62-1.1%
betnationRoma1.62-1.1%
unibetRoma1.62-1.1%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With 21 hours remaining before Torino and Roma meet in Serie A, the totals market has fractured across bookmakers. At stake, one side of the split carries decimal odds of 2.20—a pricing 2.7% above where independent sharp operators have anchored their fair value. The divergence is active market intelligence captured before kickoff, not retroactive analysis.

The stake quote sits 2.1 standard deviations removed from the consensus cluster—far enough to signal genuine structural disagreement rather than normal market chatter.

Track record supports this signal type: across 671 settled bets in the soccer totals segment at similar odds, the playbook has delivered +0.7% ROI.

Mispricings in this corner of the market don't linger: comparable edges have compressed to fair value in roughly 9 minutes from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Torino vs Roma is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).