Spanish La Liga · Soccer · Sep 18, 2026 21:00 CEST

EspanyolvsElche

1X2: PointsBet AU pricing one outcome 11.1% softer than sharp consensus, 11 hours before kickoff

Offered at PointsBet AU2.15Fair price1.94+11.1% above fair

Omenizer detected 26 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
60
Omen Score
+12.6%
Edge vs sharp consensus
80
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Espanyol @ 2.15 — best price at PointsBet AU
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
PointsBet (Australia)Espanyol2.15+12.6%
PointsBet (Ontario)Espanyol2.15+12.6%
betanoEspanyol2.10+10.0%
jazz-sportsEspanyol2.09+9.5%
stakeEspanyol2.08+8.9%
betplayEspanyol2.06+7.9%
betwhaleEspanyol2.06+7.9%
rivalryEspanyol2.06+7.9%
bcgameEspanyol2.06+7.9%
midniteEspanyol2.05+7.4%
sportsbetEspanyol2.05+7.4%
Unibet (United Kingdom)Espanyol2.05+7.4%
betr (Australia)Espanyol2.05+7.4%
boomersEspanyol2.05+7.4%
fanduelEspanyol2.05+7.4%
campobetEspanyol2.05+7.4%
jackpot-betEspanyol2.05+7.4%
bet99Espanyol2.05+7.4%
888sportEspanyol2.05+7.4%
Dabble (Australia)Espanyol2.02+5.8%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

As of 11 hours before Espanyol and Elche contest a Spanish La Liga match, the 1X2 (match result) market has fractured across sportsbooks. PointsBet AU is quoting decimal 2.15 on one side—a price sitting 11.1% below the fair value that independent sharp operators have converged upon. The mispricing is detectable at this writing, ahead of the opening whistle.

The PointsBet AU quote lands 2.1 standard deviations from the professional consensus cluster, a distance marking structural mispricing rather than routine market variance.

This consensus fair line draws from 3 independent sharp sources, anchoring the edge across multiple professional operators rather than isolating it to a single book's model.

This signal class—soccer 1X2 (match result) at mid-range odds—has shown historical strength in our tracking database. Across 4309 settled bets in this segment, the aggregate return has measured +3.0% ROI.

Mispricings of this magnitude do not typically persist to kickoff. Historical data on comparable 1X2 edges suggests the price gap usually converges toward fair value within roughly 10 hours of detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Espanyol vs Elche is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).