Luca StaehelivsRoger Pascual Ferra
Every tracked price on Luca Staeheli vs Roger Pascual Ferra, against the same margin-free fair line.
| Bookmaker | Side | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| sportsbet | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.56 | +6.0% |
| play-alberta | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.54 | +4.8% |
| sportzino | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.52 | +3.4% |
| betway | Luca Staeheli | 3.20 | +2.4% |
| Coral | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.44 | -1.8% |
| ladbrokes | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.44 | -1.8% |
| bet99 | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.42 | -3.7% |
| Dabble (Australia) | Luca Staeheli | 3.00 | -4.0% |
| kalshi | Luca Staeheli | 2.97 | -5.0% |
| bcgame | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.39 | -5.4% |
| surgebet | Luca Staeheli | 2.90 | -7.2% |
| betnation-au | Luca Staeheli | 2.90 | -7.2% |
| betdeluxe | Luca Staeheli | 2.90 | -7.2% |
| surgebet | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.36 | -7.5% |
| betnation-au | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.36 | -7.5% |
| betdeluxe | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.36 | -7.5% |
| Dabble (Australia) | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.35 | -8.2% |
| kalshi | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.34 | -8.5% |
| betway | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.30 | -11.6% |
| bcgame | Luca Staeheli | 2.76 | -11.7% |
| bet99 | Luca Staeheli | 2.75 | -12.0% |
| Coral | Luca Staeheli | 2.62 | -16.2% |
| ladbrokes | Luca Staeheli | 2.62 | -16.2% |
| betfair-ex | Roger Pascual Ferra | 1.23 | -16.4% |
| betfair-ex | Luca Staeheli | 2.54 | -18.7% |
| sportsbet | Luca Staeheli | 2.25 | -28.0% |
| sportzino | Luca Staeheli | 2.25 | -28.0% |
| play-alberta | Luca Staeheli | 2.21 | -29.3% |
No-vig fair odds (margin removed): Luca Staeheli 3.13 · Roger Pascual Ferra 1.47. How fair prices are made. Step through the devig math.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled match
PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90
Omen Score
Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
| Bookmaker | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.69 | +5.1% |
| bet105 | 2.66 | +3.9% |
| SX.bet | 2.63 | +2.7% |
| Matchbook | 2.63 | +2.7% |
| Prophet X | 2.63 | +2.7% |
| Tailgate Exchange | 2.63 | +2.7% |
| STN Sports | 2.62 | +2.3% |
| Betfair Exchange | 2.62 | +2.3% |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.62 | +2.3% |
| 4cx | 2.61 | +1.9% |
| Novig | 2.60 | +1.6% |
| Winpot | 2.60 | +1.6% |
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Luca Staeheli vs Roger Pascual Ferra
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