Federico ArnaboldivsNiccolo Ciavarella
Every tracked price on Federico Arnaboldi vs Niccolo Ciavarella, against the same margin-free fair line.
| Bookmaker | Side | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tailgate Exchange | Niccolo Ciavarella | 8.00 | +8.5% |
| Polymarket (USA) | Niccolo Ciavarella | 7.31 | -0.8% |
| Kalshi | Niccolo Ciavarella | 7.22 | -2.1% |
| DraftKings | Niccolo Ciavarella | 7.00 | -5.0% |
| Tailgate Exchange | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.14 | -7.5% |
| Polymarket (USA) | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.13 | -8.6% |
| Kalshi | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.13 | -8.8% |
| Neds | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
+19.5%
The average bettor runs a negative ROI. Omenizer members are seeing +EV opportunities whose high-conviction tier (Omen 85+) has a measured realized ROI of +19.5% across 916 settled signals last 30 days — losses included. Create a free account to see today's live signals.
| Bookmaker | Side | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (Australia) | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
| Unibet | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
| TwinSpires | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
| SugarHouse | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
| BetRivers | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
| Four Winds | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
| Desert Diamond | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
| RushBet | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.3% |
| Hard Rock (Illinois) | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.5% |
| Hard Rock (Florida) | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.5% |
| Hard Rock | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.12 | -9.5% |
| theScore | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.10 | -10.9% |
| Betano | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.10 | -10.9% |
| Betano (Greece) | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.10 | -10.9% |
| Coral | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.10 | -10.9% |
| Ladbrokes | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.10 | -10.9% |
| Bodog | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.09 | -11.7% |
| Bovada | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.09 | -11.7% |
| Fanatics | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.09 | -11.7% |
| bwin | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.09 | -11.7% |
| Sportingbet | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.09 | -11.7% |
| Sports Interaction | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.09 | -11.7% |
| Bodog | Niccolo Ciavarella | 6.50 | -11.8% |
| Bovada | Niccolo Ciavarella | 6.50 | -11.8% |
| Coolbet | Niccolo Ciavarella | 6.50 | -11.8% |
| DraftKings | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.08 | -12.3% |
| 1XBet | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.08 | -12.6% |
| Betplay | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.08 | -12.6% |
| BC.GAME | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.08 | -12.6% |
| betwhale | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.08 | -12.6% |
| Rivalry | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.08 | -12.6% |
| Coolbet | Federico Arnaboldi | 1.08 | -12.6% |
No-vig fair odds (margin removed): Federico Arnaboldi 1.24 · Niccolo Ciavarella 7.37. How fair prices are made.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled match
PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — pick Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81
Omen Score
Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
| Bookmaker | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|
| Bwin | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Sportingbet | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Sportsinteraction | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Superbet | 3.05 | +5.5% |
| Sx.Bet | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Tailgate Exchange | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Matchbook | 3.01 | +4.1% |
| Betway | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Casumo | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Unibet | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Proline | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Betjack | 3.00 | +3.7% |
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Federico Arnaboldi vs Niccolo Ciavarella
is on the member board now ·
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Live reference — prices refresh with this page (10-minute cache) and can change at the bookmaker. Not betting advice. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).