WTA Tour · Tennis · Jul 28, 2026 15:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.9%
Alexandrova–Liutova moneyline: Casumo is 6.6% soft vs sharp consensus, 15 hours to serve
Omenizer detected 38 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
79
Omen Score
+6.6%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Kristina Liutova
@ 3.00 — best price at betjack
Fits 3 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +7.9% on settled bets
With 15 hours left before Ekaterina Alexandrova plays Kristina Liutova on the WTA Tour, the moneyline market has fractured across sportsbooks. At Casumo, one outcome is trading at decimal odds of 3.00—a 6.6% premium over where independent sharp operators have anchored fair value. The mispricing is live right now.
The consensus rests on input from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair line reflects aggregated professional judgment rather than any single book's pricing model.
Our Playbook flags 3 historically profitable setups that match this signal, and the most consistent of them has yielded +7.9% ROI on settled wagers.
Across 2219 tracked bets in this exact corner—tennis moneylines at mid-range odds—the historical return is +6.1% ROI.
Mispricings this wide typically compress before the opening serve. In this market segment, comparable edges have historically lasted around 11 hours before sharp action closes the gap.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez
@ 2.00
77Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Sx.Bet
2.01
+5.3%
Novig
2.00
+4.8%
CampoBet
2.00
+4.8%
DraftKings
1.99
+4.3%
Matchbook
1.98
+3.8%
Betfair Exchange
1.97
+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.97
+3.3%
Bet105
1.96
+2.8%
Winpot
1.96
+2.8%
Ninja Casino
1.96
+2.8%
Bodog
1.95
+2.3%
Betano
1.95
+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance
Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).