Luca CastagnolavsStefan Popovic
Every tracked price on Luca Castagnola vs Stefan Popovic, against the same margin-free fair line.
| Bookmaker | Side | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1XBet | Luca Castagnola | 2.63 | — |
| Superbet | Luca Castagnola | 2.62 | — |
| DraftKings | Luca Castagnola | 2.60 | — |
| betwhale | Luca Castagnola | 2.56 | — |
| Rivalry | Luca Castagnola | 2.56 | — |
| Betplay | Luca Castagnola | 2.56 | — |
| BC.GAME | Luca Castagnola | 2.56 | — |
| Betano | Luca Castagnola | 2.52 | — |
| Sportzino | Luca Castagnola | 2.50 | — |
| 1XBet | Stefan Popovic | 1.45 | — |
| Betano | Stefan Popovic | 1.44 | — |
| Sportzino | Stefan Popovic | 1.43 | — |
| betwhale | Stefan Popovic | 1.42 | — |
| Rivalry | Stefan Popovic | 1.42 | — |
| Betplay | Stefan Popovic | 1.42 | — |
| BC.GAME | Stefan Popovic | 1.42 | — |
| Superbet | Stefan Popovic | 1.42 | — |
| DraftKings | Stefan Popovic | 1.42 | — |
| Polymarket (USA) | Stefan Popovic | 1.40 | — |
| Kalshi | Luca Castagnola | 1.29 | — |
| Polymarket (USA) | Luca Castagnola | 1.28 | — |
| Kalshi | Stefan Popovic | 1.23 | — |
A no-vig fair price for this match appears once enough independent books have priced it.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled match
PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81
Omen Score
Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
| Bookmaker | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|
| Bwin | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Sportingbet | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Sportsinteraction | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Superbet | 3.05 | +5.5% |
| Sx.Bet | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Tailgate Exchange | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Matchbook | 3.01 | +4.1% |
| Betway | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Casumo | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Unibet | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Proline | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| betJACK | 3.00 | +3.7% |
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Luca Castagnola vs Stefan Popovic
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