Rafael TobiasvsLucas Fernando
Lucas Fernando beat Rafael Tobias in UFC on 16 August 2026.
Result
Lucas Fernando beat Rafael Tobias.
| Player / team | Result |
|---|---|
| Rafael Tobias | Lost |
| Lucas Fernando | Won |
How the odds moved
Closing odds by bookmaker
Across 75 bookmakers the closing price on Lucas Fernando ran from 1.29 at 1XBet to 1.38 at Prime Sports. On a $100 stake that spread was worth $8.96 — the same bet, the same result, a different payout for anyone who shopped. See 1.38 in american or fractional odds.
Exchanges and prediction markets
These venues also priced Lucas Fernando. They are kept out of the bookmaker comparison above on purpose — an exchange price is net of commission and a prediction contract is quoted before that venue's own fees, so the three are not one column. Read each on its own basis.
| Venue | Type | Closing price | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tailgate Exchange | Exchange | 1.50 | net of commission |
| Novig | Exchange | 1.38 | net of commission |
| Polymarket | Prediction market | 1.37 | before this venue's own fees |
| BetOpenly | Exchange | 1.37 | net of commission |
| Prophet X | Exchange | 1.36 | net of commission |
| Betfair Exchange (Australia) | Exchange | 1.35 | net of commission |
| Robinhood | Prediction market | 1.33 | before this venue's own fees |
| Kalshi | Prediction market | 1.33 | before this venue's own fees |
Did the market get it right?
It did. Lucas Fernando closed at a 71.2% fair chance (1.41) and won. Favourites winning is the base case — the money question is whether anyone was paying more than 1.41 for it.
Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando: frequently asked
Who won Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando?
Lucas Fernando beat Rafael Tobias on 16 August 2026.
What were the best closing odds on Lucas Fernando?
1.38 at Prime Sports. The shortest price in the same market was 1.29 at 1XBet, so shopping was worth $8.96 per $100 staked.
Was Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando an upset?
No. Lucas Fernando closed as the favourite at a fair price of 1.41 (71%) and won.
From the bookmaker reviews
From our bookmaker reviews: across the 1,328 markets we currently track at PMU, its median margin is 12.29% — the widest of any book on our board right now.
The book most often holding the single best price is Matchbook — top of the board 30.8% of the time across 3,969 markets.
Next steps
This match is settled. The prices that were worth taking on it were only worth taking before it started — that is the whole game, and it is what the live board does.
See today's board — free accountFinal result and closing prices as recorded by our pipeline at the time of the match. Odds shown are historical and no longer available. Not betting advice. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).