ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 14, 2026 16:30 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%
Daniel UtavsDragos Nicolae Cazacu
Uta–Cazacu ITF moneyline: Coral's 5.7% mispricing cashed with positive closing-line value
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 496 live signals across 186 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline at Coral for Daniel Uta vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu (ITF Men) diverged 5.7% from sharp consensus before the opening, priced at decimal 1.83. Our detection system flagged the gap during the betting window, and early movers captured that posted price.
Match settled 0–1. The moneyline won, returning +0.83 units on a 1-unit stake.
The metric that matters: by kickoff, the flagged side had moved +0.1% in its favor relative to the quoted price—closing-line value in the bettor's direction. Professionals evaluate bets this way because market drift captures information; individual results remain noise.
Across 531 settled signals in this tennis moneyline segment, the cohort has returned +10.1% ROI over time.
Our system detects these mispricings live during the betting window, before matches begin—not after they close. The board publishes actionable edges while the window is still active.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Daniel Uta vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 16, 2026 04:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).