ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 15, 2026 12:30 UTC · avg book margin 8.6%

Arina BulatovavsLola Giza

Bulatova–Giza ITF moneyline: DraftKings priced 13.0% soft, market recalibrated before serve—the closing edge is what counts

Offered at DraftKings2.50Fair price2.21+12.9% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 488 live signals across 182 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The moneyline at DraftKings for Arina Bulatova vs Lola Giza (ITF Women) contained a 13.0% gap to the sharpest consensus, offered at decimal 2.50. Our system caught the mispricing in the pre-match window, and bettors locked in the quoted price while it was available.

Match finished 2–0. The moneyline lost. Single outcomes are inherently random around any edge, and we publish results without filtering for winners.

Where the signal proved itself: by service time, the market had shifted +5.6% in the flagged position's favor—that closing-line value is the metric professionals use. Closing prices reflect accumulated market information; individual results do not.

Among 1743 completed tennis moneyline signals in this odds bracket, the cohort has logged +4.8% ROI over time.

Detection runs live during the betting window, not afterward. The board surfaces these prices in real time, before matches begin, when the edge remains capturable.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Arina Bulatova vs Lola Giza is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 16, 2026 04:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).