ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 15, 2026 11:30 UTC · avg book margin 8.2%
Chloe PaquetvsValentina Ivanov
Paquet–Ivanov ITF moneyline: 1xBet mispriced at 6.7%, market tightened by kickoff—closing-line value proved the edge
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 486 live signals across 183 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline at 1xBet for Chloe Paquet vs Valentina Ivanov (ITF Women) diverged 6.7% from sharp consensus, quoted at decimal 1.55 in the pre-match window. Our detection system flagged the gap while betting was open, and early movers captured that posted price.
Match ended 1–2. The moneyline lost. Individual match outcomes function as near-random events around any statistical edge—we report all results, winners and losers alike.
The evidence that mattered: by kickoff, the quoted side had moved +4.8% in its favor compared to the flagged price. That closing-line value is the lens professionals use to evaluate bets, because aggregate market movement strips away result noise in ways single matches cannot.
Across 530 settled signals in tennis moneyline plays within this odds range, the cohort has delivered +9.9% ROI over time.
This analysis was generated by the live-detection system that surfaces mispricings during the betting window, before matches kick off — not after outcomes are known. The board publishes actionable edges while the window remains active.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Chloe Paquet vs Valentina Ivanov
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 16, 2026 04:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).