ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 15, 2026 10:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%
Mia HorvitvsLaura Brunkel
ITF Women: Horvit–Brunkel moneyline showed 16.8% mispricing, closed +3.9% in favor—result was 2–0 loss, but the market move is what counts
Omenizer detected 8 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Our board caught the Mia Horvit vs Laura Brunkel (ITF Women) moneyline trading at decimal 2.90—a 16.8% overvalue relative to sharp consensus at sportzino. The signal went live before the first point; bettors with access locked in the quoted price while it was still available.
Match ended 2–0. The position lost. Individual match outcomes are essentially random noise around the true edge; we publish them regardless of the scoreline.
What endures: the market drifted toward the flagged side between our alert and the opening serve, settling +3.9% closer than where we first spotted it. Professionals measure bet quality by closing-line value, not outcomes, because outcomes are volatile and market prices are not.
Across 1683 tennis moneylines in this odds band that have settled on our board, the segment has generated +4.6% return on investment.
This story was built by the detection system that identifies mispricings in real time during market hours, before play begins—never after. The live board surfaces edges only while traders retain the ability to act on them.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Mia Horvit vs Laura Brunkel
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 15, 2026 12:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).