ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 16, 2026 17:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.6%
Jia-Jing LuvsAlina Shcherbinina
ITF Women: Jia-Jing Lu moneyline carried a 15.4% mispricing—market corrected by kickoff, bet landed
Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline for Jia-Jing Lu vs Alina Shcherbinina (ITF Women) traded at decimal odds of 2.08 on one book, sitting 15.4% away from the sharp consensus before the match began. The algorithm caught the gap during the live window; bettors with access took the posted price while it held.
Lu won 2–1. The flagged moneyline paid out +1.08 units on each unit risked.
What separates signal from noise: by kickoff, the market had shifted +9.9% toward the backed side. That closing-line value is the metric professionals use to calibrate bets, because individual match results blur the picture while price movement clarifies it.
Across 1794 resolved moneyline signals in women's tennis at this odds tier, the aggregate return sits at +4.7% ROI.
This detection runs live during the betting window, flagging edges before matches start—not after. The board publishes actionable odds while the window remains open.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Jia-Jing Lu vs Alina Shcherbinina
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 17, 2026 06:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).