ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 16, 2026 18:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%
Timo LegoutvsOliver Bonding
Legout–Bonding ITF moneyline: Hard Rock's 11.5% mispricing moved +3.6% by kickoff—closing-line value cashed
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 494 live signals across 185 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline at Hard Rock for Timo Legout vs Oliver Bonding (ITF Men) quoted decimal odds of 1.65, pricing the match 11.5% softer than the sharp consensus. Our detection system flagged the gap during the pre-match betting window. Early movers captured that posted price before the line tightened.
Match settled 2–0. The moneyline won, returning +0.65 units on a 1-unit stake.
The decisive measure: by kickoff, the flagged side had shifted +3.6% in its favor relative to the opening quote. Closing-line value is how professionals evaluate bets across time, because market drift contains signal while individual results remain noise.
Across 548 settled signals in this tennis moneyline segment and odds band, the cohort has returned +10.8% ROI.
This analysis originates from a live-detection system that identifies mispricings during the betting window, before matches begin. The board publishes actionable edges while the window remains open, not after outcomes land.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Timo Legout vs Oliver Bonding
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 17, 2026 06:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).