ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 16, 2026 10:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.6%
Yuliya PerapekhinavsVlada Mincheva
Perapekhina over Mincheva at 1.50: an 11.2% overvalue at Hard Rock converted to closing-line profit
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 486 live signals across 183 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline at Hard Rock for Yuliya Perapekhina vs Vlada Mincheva (ITF Women) diverged sharply from consensus: decimal odds of 1.50 priced the favorite 11.2% softer than the aggregate sharp consensus. Our system flagged the gap during the live betting window, before the match began.
Match ended 2–0 in Perapekhina's favor. A 1-unit stake on the flagged price returned +0.50 units.
The statistic that matters: by kickoff, the market had drifted +0.1% toward the flagged side relative to the opening quote—a gain in closing-line value. Professionals evaluate bets through this lens, not single results. Market movement tells a coherent story across time; individual outcomes are noise.
Across 535 settled moneyline signals in this tennis segment and odds range, the aggregate ROI runs +9.9%.
This analysis comes from a live detection system that operates during the betting window, identifying mispricings before matches kick off. The board publishes these edges in real time, when action is still possible.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Yuliya Perapekhina vs Vlada Mincheva
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 16, 2026 12:08 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).