ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 17, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%

Jordan HassonvsOfek Shimanov

Hasson–Shimanov ITF moneyline: 12.7% overvalue evaporated at kickoff, but market corrected toward the backed side before play started

Offered at Rushbet1.83Fair price1.62+12.7% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 491 live signals across 184 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The moneyline for Jordan Hasson vs Ofek Shimanov (ITF Men) showed pricing trouble at Rushbet: decimal odds of 1.83 represented a 12.7% gap above sharp consensus. Our system caught it in the live window before the match began, and bettors who acted locked in that posted rate.

Hasson lost 2–0. Individual match outcomes function as noise around probability edges—we publish them regardless of direction.

What separates signal from outcome: the market tightened +4.7% by kickoff, moving in favor of the flagged side. Closing-line value—the professional standard for judging bets across time—proves the edge was real, because price drift reveals market conviction while scorelines obscure it.

Tennis moneylines at this odds tier have accumulated +9.8% ROI across 563 flagged bets on the board.

Detection happens in real time during the betting window, before matches start. The live board flags these edges while bettors retain the ability to act on them—not after matches conclude.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Jordan Hasson vs Ofek Shimanov is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 18, 2026 04:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).