ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 18, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%

Ce–Stoyanov ITF moneyline at Hard Rock: 13.7% overvalue cashed with positive closing-line value

Offered at Hard Rock2.05Fair price1.80+13.7% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 635 live signals across 286 matches, found the same way.

The moneyline for Gabriela Ce vs Antonia Stoyanov (ITF Women) opened at decimal odds of 2.05 on Hard Rock—a 13.7% premium above the sharp consensus. The board detected and published the mispricing before the match began, capturing the price while the window remained open.

The match ended 0–2. Bets placed at the flagged price returned +1.05 units per unit wagered.

Between detection and kickoff, the market drifted +0.0% toward the backed side. That closing-line value—the metric professionals rely on to distinguish genuine edges from variance—validates the initial signal. Scores fluctuate; price shifts do not.

Across 1887 settled tennis moneylines in this odds range, signals logged +4.4% ROI on the board.

Detection runs live before kickoff, not in reverse. The board surfaces these gaps while action is still possible, without post-match reconstruction.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
FC U Craiova 1948 vs Maxline Vitebsk · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — pick FC U Craiova 1948 @ 2.30
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+3.4%
Entry edge
+13.5%
Edge near close
2.03
Fair price (no-vig)
2.15
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
2.9%
Recommended stake
10.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+3.1%
Shin
+3.0%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-7.9%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betanything2.30+13.5%
BetUS2.25+11.1%
BetOnline2.25+11.1%
SportsBetting.ag2.25+11.1%
Betmania2.18+7.6%
Betano2.10+3.7%
Bracco2.04+0.7%
Bet1052.03+0.2%
YouWager2.02-0.3%
Jazz Sports2.00-1.3%
Stake1.98-2.2%
Unibet1.98-2.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.30 odds → 43% implied win probability
49%
Fair win probability
+8.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.3% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Soccer) — +8.0% settled ROI on 40% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.0% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
Past performance

Based on 108 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+6.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+4.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
83%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +1.0% to +7.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 15, 06:20 UTC at 2.15 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.03 → closing-line value +2.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.15 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Gabriela Ce vs Antonia Stoyanov is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 19, 2026 12:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).