ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 18, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%
Gabriela CevsAntonia Stoyanov
Ce–Stoyanov ITF moneyline at Hard Rock: 13.7% overvalue cashed with positive closing-line value
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 491 live signals across 184 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline for Gabriela Ce vs Antonia Stoyanov (ITF Women) opened at decimal odds of 2.05 on Hard Rock—a 13.7% premium above the sharp consensus. The board detected and published the mispricing before the match began, capturing the price while the window remained open.
The match ended 0–2. Bets placed at the flagged price returned +1.05 units per unit wagered.
Between detection and kickoff, the market drifted +0.0% toward the backed side. That closing-line value—the metric professionals rely on to distinguish genuine edges from variance—validates the initial signal. Scores fluctuate; price shifts do not.
Across 1887 settled tennis moneylines in this odds range, signals logged +4.4% ROI on the board.
Detection runs live before kickoff, not in reverse. The board surfaces these gaps while action is still possible, without post-match reconstruction.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Gabriela Ce vs Antonia Stoyanov
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 19, 2026 12:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).