UFC totals: 12.0% overpriced at 1xBet, caught live, closed with +44.0% closing-line value
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 526 live signals across 193 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The totals line for UFC's Levi Rodrigues vs Felipe Franco carried a sharp mispricing. At 1xBet, decimal odds of 2.80 represented a 12.0% gap above consensus. The board flagged it before action began, and bettors who took the price held it through to kickoff.
The fight ended 0–1. Single matches are inherently random around the margin, and we report outcomes regardless of direction.
What persists across time: the closing price shifted +44.0% in favor of the backed side before the opening bell. Closing-line value—the standard professionals use to separate signal from noise—confirms the edge existed. Scorelines vary; price movement does not.
This detection engine runs live every day, flagging mispricings while betting windows remain open. No post-match analysis, no hindsight reconstruction—just real-time market gaps before they vanish.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Liam McCracken vs Silvestre Sanchez
· UFC · Fighting — flagged side Silvestre Sanchez
@ 2.20
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe edge survives every de-margining method
+14.9%
Shin
+14.4%
Power
+15.9%
Additive
+14.9%
Balanced
+2.6%
Worst case
+15.9%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.4σ from market consensus.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Coolbet
2.20
+0.3%
Ladbrokes AU
2.20
+0.3%
Bet99
2.15
-1.9%
4cx
2.11
-3.8%
BetOpenly
2.10
-4.2%
Novig
2.08
-5.1%
Betano
2.08
-5.1%
netbet
2.08
-5.1%
ibet
2.05
-6.5%
rizk
2.05
-6.5%
Betsafe
2.05
-6.5%
Betsson
2.05
-6.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.20 odds → 45% implied win probability
46%
Fair win probability
+3.3% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+1.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 01, 00:02 UTC at 2.82 (+14.7% edge) → fair price at close 2.11 → closing-line value +16.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.82 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Levi Rodrigues vs Felipe Franco
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 20, 2026 04:45 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).