UFC · Fighting · Aug 01, 2026 11:40 EDT · avg book margin 5.0%
Nikolic–Vologdin moneyline at SportsBetting.ag trades 5.3% fat of sharp pricing, 17 hours out
Omenizer detected 21 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
88
Omen Score
+5.3%
Edge vs sharp consensus
55
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Mark Vologdin
@ 2.83 — best price at SportsBetting.ag
Fits 5 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +9.8% on settled bets
SportsBetting.ag is quoting decimal 2.83 on one side of the Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin UFC moneyline, a price that sits 5.3% above the sharp consensus with 17 hours remaining before the bell. The gap is actionable now—not a retrospective observation, but a live market signal captured as this page loads.
The SportsBetting.ag quote has drifted 2.0 standard deviations beyond the cluster where other operators have priced this outcome—far enough to signal genuine misprice rather than routine market churn.
That consensus figure is built from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair value backing this edge reflects professional assessment across multiple shops, not a single operator's read.
Our Playbook identifies 5 historical patterns matching this setup; the highest-returning variant has posted +9.8% ROI on its closed bets.
The fighting moneyline segment at mid-range odds has tracked +16.6% ROI across 44 settled bets in our records, demonstrating that edges of this type have carried real payoff over time.
Mispricings at this scale typically don't survive until fight time: comparable edges in this market have historically compressed within roughly 35 hours as sharp action moves toward value.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
· MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox
@ 2.32
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
FanDuel
2.32
+0.1%
Bovada
2.30
-0.8%
Espn-Bet
2.30
-0.8%
Betanysports
2.30
-0.8%
1xBet
2.29
-1.2%
Matchbook
2.26
-2.5%
BetUS
2.25
-2.9%
Gtbets
2.25
-2.9%
BetMGM
2.25
-2.9%
Coolbet
2.25
-2.9%
Sport888
2.25
-2.9%
Everygame
2.25
-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance
Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).