UFC · Fighting · Aug 01, 2026 11:40 EDT · avg book margin 5.0%
Borislav NikolicvsMark Vologdin
Nikolic–Vologdin moneyline at SportsBetting.ag trades 5.3% fat of sharp pricing, 17 hours out
What happened: Final score: 1–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-6.7% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 18 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 17.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
SportsBetting.ag is quoting decimal 2.83 on one side of the Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin UFC moneyline, a price that sits 5.3% above the sharp consensus with 17 hours remaining before the bell. The gap is actionable now—not a retrospective observation, but a live market signal captured as this page loads.
The SportsBetting.ag quote has drifted 2.0 standard deviations beyond the cluster where other operators have priced this outcome—far enough to signal genuine misprice rather than routine market churn.
That consensus figure is built from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair value backing this edge reflects professional assessment across multiple shops, not a single operator's read.
Our Playbook identifies 5 historical patterns matching this setup; the highest-returning variant has posted +9.8% ROI on its closed bets.
The fighting moneyline segment at mid-range odds has tracked +16.6% ROI across 44 settled bets in our records, demonstrating that edges of this type have carried real payoff over time.
Mispricings at this scale typically don't survive until fight time: comparable edges in this market have historically compressed within roughly 35 hours as sharp action moves toward value.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Liam McCracken vs Silvestre Sanchez
· UFC · Fighting — flagged side Silvestre Sanchez
@ 2.20
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe edge survives every de-margining method
+14.9%
Shin
+14.4%
Power
+15.9%
Additive
+14.9%
Balanced
+2.6%
Worst case
+15.9%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.4σ from market consensus.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Coolbet
2.20
+0.3%
Ladbrokes AU
2.20
+0.3%
Bet99
2.15
-1.9%
4cx
2.11
-3.8%
BetOpenly
2.10
-4.2%
Novig
2.08
-5.1%
Betano
2.08
-5.1%
netbet
2.08
-5.1%
ibet
2.05
-6.5%
rizk
2.05
-6.5%
Betsafe
2.05
-6.5%
Betsson
2.05
-6.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.20 odds → 45% implied win probability
46%
Fair win probability
+3.3% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+1.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 01, 00:02 UTC at 2.82 (+14.7% edge) → fair price at close 2.11 → closing-line value +16.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.82 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 10, 2026 01:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).