Australian AFL · Australian Football · Jul 18, 2026 16:15 AEST · avg book margin 5.7%
North Melbourne Football ClubvsMelbourne Football Club
North Melbourne 76, Melbourne 92: Totals market at Sportsbet overvalued by 18.8% — closing line moved +4.2% in the flagged direction
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
A totals mismatch emerged in the Australian AFL matchup between North Melbourne Football Club and Melbourne Football Club. At Sportsbet, decimal odds of 1.90 priced one side 18.8% above the sharp consensus. The board caught it live, while the window to act remained open.
North Melbourne finished with 76 points; Melbourne with 92. The flagged side cashed, yielding +0.90 units on each unit staked.
Between the signal and kickoff, the market shifted +4.2% toward the backed side. This closing-line value—the metric professionals use to separate real edges from lucky outcomes—confirms the initial mispricing. Scorelines bounce; price movement does not.
The same detection system runs live every day, flagging these gaps before games begin. No post-game reconstruction, no hindsight reshaping. The board surfaces inefficiencies while bettors can still capitalize.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
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already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Matchbook
2.10
+9.2%
BetOnline
1.98
+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag
1.98
+2.9%
Betr AU
1.93
+0.1%
BC.Game
1.91
-0.8%
betplay
1.91
-0.8%
rivalry
1.91
-0.8%
betwhale
1.91
-0.8%
Jazz Sports
1.91
-0.8%
Coolbet
1.90
-1.2%
SX.bet
1.88
-2.4%
betmania
1.88
-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for North Melbourne Football Club vs Melbourne Football Club
is on the member board now ·
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Record settled · last updated Jul 19, 2026 05:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).