MLB · Baseball · Jul 19, 2026 19:10 UTC · avg book margin 8.7%

Colorado Rockies–Cincinnati Reds totals split wide: 3.4% edge surfaces with 24 hours to first pitch

Offered2.05Fair price1.98+3.4% above fair
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
WinpotColorado Rockies2.25-0.7%
Team MexicoColorado Rockies2.25-0.7%
CampoBetColorado Rockies2.25-0.7%
NovigColorado Rockies2.25-0.7%
Jackpot.betColorado Rockies2.25-0.7%
BetGRWColorado Rockies2.23-1.6%
Sportsbetting.agColorado Rockies2.23-1.6%
BetOnlineColorado Rockies2.23-1.6%
BetUSColorado Rockies2.23-1.6%
STN SportsColorado Rockies2.23-1.6%
BraccoColorado Rockies2.22-2.0%
Prime SportsColorado Rockies2.22-2.0%
4CxColorado Rockies2.21-2.5%
1XBetColorado Rockies2.21-2.5%
bet105Colorado Rockies2.21-2.5%
BoomersColorado Rockies2.21-2.5%
NovigCincinnati Reds1.77-2.7%
FanDuelColorado Rockies2.20-2.9%
PointsBet (Australia)Colorado Rockies2.20-2.9%
LottolandColorado Rockies2.20-2.9%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

The over-under for Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) is priced unevenly across sportsbooks. One side of the totals market is currently quoting 3.4% above where independent sharp operators have calibrated fair value. The mispricing is live now, not hindsight — odds remain quoted as this page loads.

When bookmakers scatter this wide, it signals genuine disagreement about where the true line sits. Sharp consensus converges on what that true line is — and today it points to a clear side.

The consensus behind this edge draws from 4 independent sharp sources, so the fair-value estimate is not one book's isolated read.

The edge aligns with 11 patterns logged in the Playbook archive. The highest-performing variant has returned +14.7% on closed bets.

This exact market segment — baseball totals at mid-range odds — has a measurable track record: 1186 resolved bets in our database show +2.8% ROI.

These mispricings do not hold until first pitch. Comparable edges in this market have historically compressed within roughly 20 hours as sharp capital realigns the totals.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
FC U Craiova 1948 vs Maxline Vitebsk · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — pick FC U Craiova 1948 @ 2.30
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+3.4%
Entry edge
+13.5%
Edge near close
2.03
Fair price (no-vig)
2.15
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
2.9%
Recommended stake
10.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+3.1%
Shin
+3.0%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-7.9%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betanything2.30+13.5%
BetUS2.25+11.1%
BetOnline2.25+11.1%
SportsBetting.ag2.25+11.1%
Betmania2.18+7.6%
Betano2.10+3.7%
Bracco2.04+0.7%
Bet1052.03+0.2%
YouWager2.02-0.3%
Jazz Sports2.00-1.3%
Stake1.98-2.2%
Unibet1.98-2.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.30 odds → 43% implied win probability
49%
Fair win probability
+8.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.3% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Soccer) — +8.0% settled ROI on 40% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.0% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
Past performance

Based on 108 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+6.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+4.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
83%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +1.0% to +7.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 15, 06:20 UTC at 2.15 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.03 → closing-line value +2.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.15 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).