MLB · Baseball · Jul 20, 2026 19:10 EDT

Boston Red SoxvsBaltimore Orioles

Red Sox–Orioles Asian handicap trades 2.5% soft at Everygame, 8 hours to first pitch

What happened: Final score: 6–5. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.50 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +5.2% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 8 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at Everygame2.50Fair price2.44+2.5% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 485 live signals across 183 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 8.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The Asian handicap for Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB) is showing pricing friction across the market with 8 hours remaining before game time. At Everygame, decimal odds of 2.50 sit 2.5% below the sharp consensus—a live mismatch captured as this page loads, not a retrospective finding.

The outlier price deviates 2.6 standard deviations from the cluster where other sportsbooks have settled, indicating substantive market disagreement rather than routine fluctuation.

Two independent sharp sources anchor the consensus baseline, so the fair value behind this edge rests on distributed judgment rather than one operator's model.

Seven historical patterns from our Playbook align with this signal, and the most productive has generated +26.5% ROI on closed bets.

Baseball Asian handicap bets in the mid-odds band have a tracked history: 94 settled signals matching this profile delivered +28.5% ROI, showing how comparable edges have resolved.

Prices in this segment typically compress before the opening pitch—comparable edges have historically held for roughly 1 minutes before converging toward true value.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 21, 2026 01:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).