ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 20, 2026 19:09 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%
Keller over Nicholson: 8.9% overpriced moneyline at Superbet hit +0.8% closing-line value
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
Superbet's moneyline for the Kelly Keller vs Scarlett Nicholson ITF Women match carried structural mispricing. Decimal odds of 2.00 on one side departed 8.9% above the sharp consensus, a gap the live board caught and surfaced to positioned bettors before the opening rally.
Keller won 2–0. A 1-unit flat stake at the flagged price returned +1.00 units.
The market confirmed the edge by kickoff, compressing +0.8% toward the backed side. That directional shift—closing-line value—is how professionals separate genuine opportunities from outcome variance. Single matches are noise; price movement is signal.
Across 1912 settled tennis moneyline bets in this odds band, the segment has posted +4.7% ROI.
Detection runs live before play, not reconstructed after final scores. The board surfaces mispricings while betting windows remain open and capital can deploy.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Hynek Barton
· ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis — pick Hynek Barton
@ 2.20
82Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe edge survives every de-margining method
+16.3%
Shin
+16.4%
Power
+16.3%
Additive
+5.5%
Worst case
+16.3%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 7.6σ from market consensus.Fairline based on a single sharp source.Limited sharp data for this market.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
2.20
+17.8%
DraftKings
1.81
-3.3%
Unibet
1.78
-4.6%
Bet99
1.77
-5.3%
Superbet
1.77
-5.3%
BetOnline
1.77
-5.3%
SportsBetting.ag
1.77
-5.3%
PointsBet
1.77
-5.3%
Betfair Exchange
1.76
-5.9%
Overtime Markets
1.76
-5.9%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.76
-5.9%
Neds
1.75
-6.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.20 odds → 45% implied win probability
54%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+5.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Past performance
Based on 1,131 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.4% 🔒
Average return
+1.2% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +5.8% to +8.4% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 19, 18:46 UTC at 2.30 (+16.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.86 → closing-line value +6.3%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.30 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Kelly Keller vs Scarlett Nicholson
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 21, 2026 04:52 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).