MLB · Baseball · Jul 20, 2026 23:05 UTC · avg book margin 7.9%

Yankees-Pirates totals market splits 4.3% wide across sportsbooks — sharp consensus and a 18-hour window

Offered2.35Fair price2.25+4.3% above fair
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
BetOpenlyNew York Yankees1.95+0.7%
SX BetNew York Yankees1.94+0.3%
KuttNew York Yankees1.93-0.2%
KuttPittsburgh Pirates2.07-0.4%
BetGRWNew York Yankees1.93-0.6%
NovigNew York Yankees1.93-0.6%
EverygameNew York Yankees1.93-0.6%
BetAmapolaNew York Yankees1.93-0.6%
SharpNew York Yankees1.93-0.6%
1XBetPittsburgh Pirates2.06-0.9%
NovigPittsburgh Pirates2.06-0.9%
4CxNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%
Sportsbetting.agNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%
BetOnlineNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%
Matchbook ExchangeNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%
Prophet XNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%
BetAnythingNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%
BetUSNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%
BetNowNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%
YouWagerNew York Yankees1.92-1.1%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With 18 hours until New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB), the totals market is fragmented across sportsbooks—and the sharpest operators disagree with the highest current price by 4.3%. The edge exists in real time, not in hindsight: bets placed now lock in the mismatch before it closes.

When bookmakers scatter this far apart on the same market, one side is mispriced—and the sharp consensus identifies which. Wide price dispersal is where inefficiency lives.

Three independent sharp sources feed the consensus line behind this edge, so it reflects multiple operators' models, not a single book's view.

The signal triggers 10 patterns in our historical Playbook. The highest-returning variant has posted +14.7% ROI across its settled bets.

Baseball totals in this odds range have a trackable history: 1201 settled bets in the same market segment show +2.3% ROI, indicating how often these gaps compress in the bettor's favor.

Mispricings of this size rarely survive to first pitch. This market segment has historically corrected within roughly 20 hours as sharp action crowds the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC · Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa @ 1.93
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.0%
Entry edge
+2.0%
Edge near close
+0.3%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.89
Fair price (no-vig)
2.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
2.2%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bodog1.93+2.0%
Bovada1.93+2.0%
Heritage1.92+1.6%
Superbet1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92+1.6%
Betano1.91+1.1%
Betamapola1.91+1.1%
Fliff1.87-1.0%
Sportzino1.83-2.9%
BetDEX1.81-4.0%
Bet1051.80-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance

Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).