ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 20, 2026 14:15 UTC · avg book margin 8.0%
Ciurnelli over Ciavarella at 2.05: 12.3% overline at 888sport compressed +3.5% by serve
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The ITF Men moneyline between Raffaele Ciurnelli and Niccolo Ciavarella carried structural mispricing at 888sport in the hours before play. Decimal odds of 2.05 on one side diverged 12.3% from the sharp consensus. The board surfaced the mismatch while the betting window remained active, and positioned bettors who moved early captured the price.
Ciurnelli took the match 2–1. A 1-unit flat stake at the flagged decimal returned +1.05 units.
Outcome variance obscures the true quality of a bet. What matters for professionals is closing-line value—the directional shift in price by kickoff. The moneyline moved +3.5% toward the backed side before the opening point, a compression that signals the market recognized the mispricing. CLV reveals edge where scorelines do not.
Tennis moneylines in this odds band have produced +4.4% ROI over 1926 settled wagers tracked on the board.
Detection runs live and continuous, surfacing mispricings as they form—not after matches end. The active board exposes gaps while capital can deploy and windows remain open.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Hynek Barton
· ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis — pick Hynek Barton
@ 2.20
82Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe edge survives every de-margining method
+16.3%
Shin
+16.4%
Power
+16.3%
Additive
+5.5%
Worst case
+16.3%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 7.6σ from market consensus.Fairline based on a single sharp source.Limited sharp data for this market.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
2.20
+17.8%
DraftKings
1.81
-3.3%
Unibet
1.78
-4.6%
Bet99
1.77
-5.3%
Superbet
1.77
-5.3%
BetOnline
1.77
-5.3%
SportsBetting.ag
1.77
-5.3%
PointsBet
1.77
-5.3%
Betfair Exchange
1.76
-5.9%
Overtime Markets
1.76
-5.9%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.76
-5.9%
Neds
1.75
-6.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.20 odds → 45% implied win probability
54%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+5.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Past performance
Based on 1,131 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.4% 🔒
Average return
+1.2% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +5.8% to +8.4% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 19, 18:46 UTC at 2.30 (+16.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.86 → closing-line value +6.3%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.30 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Raffaele Ciurnelli vs Niccolo Ciavarella
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 21, 2026 12:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).