MLB · Baseball · Jul 20, 2026 23:07 UTC · avg book margin 4.7%

Blue Jays–Rays totals at 1xBet carried 7.4% edge; market compressed toward it before first pitch

Offered at 1xBet2.07Fair price1.93+7.4% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 827 live signals across 329 matches, found the same way.

The totals market for Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays showed a structural mispricing at 1xBet ahead of first pitch. One side traded at decimal 2.07—a 7.4% deviation above the sharp consensus. The board surfaced it before action began, and positioned bettors secured the price while available.

The match ended 1–7. Flat 1-unit stakes at the flagged odds lost. Single outcomes function as coin flips around any edge; we publish results without filtering for direction.

What scales across time is closing-line value. By first pitch, the market had shifted +0.3% toward the backed side—a directional move that separates signal from variance. Professionals measure bets through CLV, not results, because scoreboards are random and price movement is not.

This detection runs live every day before kickoff, surfacing mispricings in real time—not reconstructed afterward. The active board exposes edges while betting windows remain open and stakes can land.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox @ 2.32
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
FanDuel2.32+0.1%
Bovada2.30-0.8%
Espn-Bet2.30-0.8%
Betanysports2.30-0.8%
1xBet2.29-1.2%
Matchbook2.26-2.5%
BetUS2.25-2.9%
Gtbets2.25-2.9%
BetMGM2.25-2.9%
Coolbet2.25-2.9%
Sport8882.25-2.9%
Everygame2.25-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance

Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 21, 2026 04:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).