ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 21, 2026 15:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.0%
Gannon edges Knaff 2–0 after market gave away 8.8% at ladbrokes—closing shift validated the catch
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The moneyline between Conor Gannon and Alex Knaff (ITF Men) carried a visible mispricing at ladbrokes before the first point. Decimal odds of 2.25 sat 8.8% overvalued relative to sharp consensus. Our board surfaced the gap in real time, and bettors positioning early claimed the price.
Gannon took it 2–0. On a flat 1-unit stake at the flagged decimal, the return was +1.25 units.
Results alone tell you almost nothing. What matters is whether the market recognized the edge before you cashed. By start of play, the moneyline had tightened +2.0% in favor of the backed side—closing-line value that signals the market was correcting toward reality. That directional compression is how professionals audit bet quality across time.
Tennis moneylines at these odds levels have delivered +5.0% ROI on 1964 settled bets flagged through this system.
Detection runs live and before kickoff, surfacing mispricings as bookmakers post them—not after scorelines settle. The board remains open while betting windows stay active.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Hynek Barton
· ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis — pick Hynek Barton
@ 2.20
82Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe edge survives every de-margining method
+16.3%
Shin
+16.4%
Power
+16.3%
Additive
+5.5%
Worst case
+16.3%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 7.6σ from market consensus.Fairline based on a single sharp source.Limited sharp data for this market.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
2.20
+17.8%
DraftKings
1.81
-3.3%
Unibet
1.78
-4.6%
Bet99
1.77
-5.3%
Superbet
1.77
-5.3%
BetOnline
1.77
-5.3%
SportsBetting.ag
1.77
-5.3%
PointsBet
1.77
-5.3%
Betfair Exchange
1.76
-5.9%
Overtime Markets
1.76
-5.9%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.76
-5.9%
Neds
1.75
-6.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.20 odds → 45% implied win probability
54%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+5.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Past performance
Based on 1,131 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.4% 🔒
Average return
+1.2% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +5.8% to +8.4% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 19, 18:46 UTC at 2.30 (+16.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.86 → closing-line value +6.3%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.30 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Conor Gannon vs Alex Knaff
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 22, 2026 04:52 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).