ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 21, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.3%
Jan-Lennard StruffvsAlexander Shevchenko
Struff–Shevchenko moneyline trades 7.6% soft at CampoBet; 34 hours until ATP serve
What happened: Final score: 2–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-8.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 34 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 34.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
With 34 hours remaining before Jan-Lennard Struff and Alexander Shevchenko take the court at ATP World Tour, CampoBet is quoting a moneyline price at decimal odds of 2.30—a 7.6% departure from where independent sharp operators have anchored their fair-value estimate. The mismatch is active as this page loads; odds remain quoted live.
The outlier price sits 3.0 standard deviations beyond the consensus settlement point—statistical distance that marks a genuine inefficiency, not routine market scatter.
The consensus draws from 3 independent sharp operators, so the fair line it represents is not any single book's proprietary view.
The signal maps onto 3 patterns in the historical Playbook; the strongest has realized +5.2% ROI on closed bets.
This market segment—tennis moneyline at mid-range decimal odds—carries a measurable record: 1888 resolved signals in our database have returned +4.4% ROI.
Mispricings at this scale do not linger to first serve: comparable edges in tennis moneylines have historically compressed within roughly 12 hours as sharp capital realigns the price.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Shevchenko
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 21, 2026 11:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).