ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 21, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.3%

Struff–Shevchenko moneyline trades 7.6% soft at CampoBet; 34 hours until ATP serve

Offered at CampoBet2.30Fair price2.14+7.6% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 774 live signals across 302 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
Matchbook ExchangeAlexander Shevchenko2.16+1.0%
Betfair Exchange (Australia)Alexander Shevchenko2.12-0.9%
Betfair ExchangeAlexander Shevchenko2.12-0.9%
Prophet XAlexander Shevchenko2.11-1.3%
NovigJan-Lennard Struff1.87-1.4%
jazz-sportsAlexander Shevchenko2.10-1.8%
matchbookAlexander Shevchenko2.10-1.8%
sportsbetting-agAlexander Shevchenko2.10-1.8%
BetOnlineAlexander Shevchenko2.10-1.8%
Jazz SportsAlexander Shevchenko2.10-1.8%
Sportsbetting.agAlexander Shevchenko2.10-1.8%
1XBetAlexander Shevchenko2.08-2.8%
prophet-xAlexander Shevchenko2.08-2.8%
bet105Alexander Shevchenko2.07-3.2%
SuperbetAlexander Shevchenko2.07-3.2%
4CxAlexander Shevchenko2.07-3.2%
SX.betJan-Lennard Struff1.83-3.3%
matchbookJan-Lennard Struff1.83-3.6%
betfair-exAlexander Shevchenko2.06-3.7%
bet105Jan-Lennard Struff1.82-4.0%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With 34 hours remaining before Jan-Lennard Struff and Alexander Shevchenko take the court at ATP World Tour, CampoBet is quoting a moneyline price at decimal odds of 2.30—a 7.6% departure from where independent sharp operators have anchored their fair-value estimate. The mismatch is active as this page loads; odds remain quoted live.

The outlier price sits 3.0 standard deviations beyond the consensus settlement point—statistical distance that marks a genuine inefficiency, not routine market scatter.

The consensus draws from 3 independent sharp operators, so the fair line it represents is not any single book's proprietary view.

The signal maps onto 3 patterns in the historical Playbook; the strongest has realized +5.2% ROI on closed bets.

This market segment—tennis moneyline at mid-range decimal odds—carries a measurable record: 1888 resolved signals in our database have returned +4.4% ROI.

Mispricings at this scale do not linger to first serve: comparable edges in tennis moneylines have historically compressed within roughly 12 hours as sharp capital realigns the price.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
FC U Craiova 1948 vs Maxline Vitebsk · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — pick FC U Craiova 1948 @ 2.30
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+3.4%
Entry edge
+13.5%
Edge near close
2.03
Fair price (no-vig)
2.15
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
2.9%
Recommended stake
10.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+3.1%
Shin
+3.0%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-7.9%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betanything2.30+13.5%
BetUS2.25+11.1%
BetOnline2.25+11.1%
SportsBetting.ag2.25+11.1%
Betmania2.18+7.6%
Betano2.10+3.7%
Bracco2.04+0.7%
Bet1052.03+0.2%
YouWager2.02-0.3%
Jazz Sports2.00-1.3%
Stake1.98-2.2%
Unibet1.98-2.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.30 odds → 43% implied win probability
49%
Fair win probability
+8.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.3% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Soccer) — +8.0% settled ROI on 40% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.0% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
Past performance

Based on 108 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+6.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+4.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
83%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +1.0% to +7.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 15, 06:20 UTC at 2.15 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.03 → closing-line value +2.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.15 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Shevchenko is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).