ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 22, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%
Kolos Kincses defeats Nikola Matovic 2–1: market gave away 17.2%, closing prices proved the catch was real
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 771 live signals across 311 matches, found the same way.
Superbet's moneyline on the Kolos Kincses vs Nikola Matovic ITF Men match opened with a 17.2% deviation from sharp consensus—decimal odds of 2.32 that our board detected and flagged before the first serve. Bettors who moved at that price locked in value while the window lasted.
Kincses won 2–1. The flagged bet returned +1.32 units on a 1-unit flat stake.
One match outcome proves nothing; what professionals measure is closing-line value. By kickoff, the market had compressed +1.3% toward the backed side—movement that confirms the market was correcting toward true probability. CLV, not results, is how you audit edge quality over time.
Across 1985 settled bets in this segment (tennis moneyline, mid-range odds), flagged signals have generated +5.3% ROI on the board.
Detection runs live before the first point is played—the engine surfaces mispricings the moment bookmakers post them. The board captures these gaps while betting windows remain open, not after scorelines close them.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez
@ 2.00
77Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Sx.Bet
2.01
+5.3%
Novig
2.00
+4.8%
CampoBet
2.00
+4.8%
DraftKings
1.99
+4.3%
Matchbook
1.98
+3.8%
Betfair Exchange
1.97
+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.97
+3.3%
Bet105
1.96
+2.8%
Winpot
1.96
+2.8%
Ninja Casino
1.96
+2.8%
Bodog
1.95
+2.3%
Betano
1.95
+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance
Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Kolos Kincses vs Nikola Matovic
is on the member board now ·
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Record settled · last updated Jul 22, 2026 12:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).