ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 22, 2026 00:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%
Natsuho ArakawavsLily Fairclough
Arakawa–Fairclough ITF moneyline: 8.9% mispricing at Rushbet closed +14.2% in the backer's favor before first serve
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 491 live signals across 184 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Rushbet posted decimal odds of 1.71 on one side of the Natsuho Arakawa vs Lily Fairclough ITF Women moneyline—a 8.9% deviation from sharp consensus. The board caught it and signaled while bettors could still act. The match opened: Fairclough took the win 2–0.
The flagged bet lost. Single tennis results are essentially random noise around the true probability; we report outcomes without filtering by win or loss.
What professionals scrutinize is how the market behaved, not the scoreline. By serve time, Rushbet's price had shifted +14.2% toward the backed side—market compression that signals the oddsmakers were recalibrating toward reality. This closing-line movement is the measure; CLV reveals whether edge detection was sound or spurious.
Over 614 completed bets in women's tennis moneyline within this odds band, flagged signals have posted +11.2% ROI on the board.
Detection runs live before first serve—not after the match concludes. The active board surfaces these gaps the moment bookmakers publish them, while betting windows remain available.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Natsuho Arakawa vs Lily Fairclough
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 23, 2026 05:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).