ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 22, 2026 00:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%
Arakawa–Fairclough ITF moneyline: 8.9% mispricing at Rushbet closed +14.2% in the backer's favor before first serve
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 667 live signals across 317 matches, found the same way.
Rushbet posted decimal odds of 1.71 on one side of the Natsuho Arakawa vs Lily Fairclough ITF Women moneyline—a 8.9% deviation from sharp consensus. The board caught it and signaled while bettors could still act. The match opened: Fairclough took the win 2–0.
The flagged bet lost. Single tennis results are essentially random noise around the true probability; we report outcomes without filtering by win or loss.
What professionals scrutinize is how the market behaved, not the scoreline. By serve time, Rushbet's price had shifted +14.2% toward the backed side—market compression that signals the oddsmakers were recalibrating toward reality. This closing-line movement is the measure; CLV reveals whether edge detection was sound or spurious.
Over 614 completed bets in women's tennis moneyline within this odds band, flagged signals have posted +11.2% ROI on the board.
Detection runs live before first serve—not after the match concludes. The active board surfaces these gaps the moment bookmakers publish them, while betting windows remain available.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez
@ 2.00
77Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Sx.Bet
2.01
+5.3%
Novig
2.00
+4.8%
CampoBet
2.00
+4.8%
DraftKings
1.99
+4.3%
Matchbook
1.98
+3.8%
Betfair Exchange
1.97
+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.97
+3.3%
Bet105
1.96
+2.8%
Winpot
1.96
+2.8%
Ninja Casino
1.96
+2.8%
Bodog
1.95
+2.3%
Betano
1.95
+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance
Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Natsuho Arakawa vs Lily Fairclough
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 23, 2026 05:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).