MLB · Baseball · Jul 22, 2026 19:05 EDT · avg book margin 7.1%

New York YankeesvsPittsburgh Pirates

Yankees–Pirates totals market shows 2.5% overvalue at 1xBet with 4 hours to first pitch

What happened: Final score: 3–3. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 4 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at 1xBet1.91Fair price1.86+2.5% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 494 live signals across 185 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 4 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

As New York Yankees face Pittsburgh Pirates in MLB, the totals market is fractured across sportsbooks—and one outcome is trading at 1xBet with decimal odds of 1.91, sitting 2.5% above where sharp operators have anchored fair value. The pricing gap exists right now, not after the fact: the window remains open while you read this.

When books disagree this sharply on a single market, disagreement itself becomes information. The sharp consensus pinpoints which side carries the edge.

Eight independent sharp sources converge on that consensus, so the fair-value estimate draws from distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's reading.

Four historical patterns from our Playbook align with this signal. The strongest among them has produced +19.6% return on closed bets.

Pricing dislocations this large seldom survive until game time. Comparable totals-market edges have historically compressed within roughly 20 hours as sharp action flows toward consensus.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 22, 2026 20:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).