MLB · Baseball · Jul 22, 2026 13:05 EDT · avg book margin 5.2%

New York YankeesvsPittsburgh Pirates

Yankees-Pirates moneyline at BC.Game trades 4.3% soft versus sharp consensus, 15 hours to first pitch

What happened: Final score: 3–3. The bet pushed — stake returned. The closing line moved against the signal (-17.5% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 20 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at BC.Game2.48Fair price2.38+4.3% above fair

Omenizer detected 63 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 14.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

BC.Game is quoting the moneyline at decimal 2.48 for New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)—a 4.3% departure from where sharp operators have anchored fair value, with 15 hours remaining before first pitch. The mismatch is live as this page loads, not a settled artifact: the pricing window remains open and measurable.

Two patterns from our historical Playbook align with this signal. The strongest has generated +14.3% ROI on closed bets.

Baseball moneyline edges in the mid-odds band carry documented track record: 533 resolved wagers in comparable scenarios have produced +12.2% ROI, showing how regularly such mispricings have materialized and resolved.

Overquotes at this scale tend to compress before the first pitch is thrown. In this market segment, comparable signals have typically corrected within roughly 9 hours as sharp action tightens the consensus.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 22, 2026 20:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).