MLB · Baseball · Jul 22, 2026 17:05 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%

Yankees-Pirates moneyline at BC.Game trades 4.3% soft versus sharp consensus, 15 hours to first pitch

Offered at BC.Game2.48Fair price2.38+4.3% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 816 live signals across 379 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
PointsBet (Ontario)New York Yankees1.77+4.0%
PointsBet (Australia)New York Yankees1.77+4.0%
KuttPittsburgh Pirates2.56+1.6%
BetAnythingPittsburgh Pirates2.50-0.8%
BetGRWNew York Yankees1.67-1.8%
NovigPittsburgh Pirates2.47-2.0%
NovigNew York Yankees1.67-2.1%
FanDuelPittsburgh Pirates2.46-2.4%
Betway (Alaska)Pittsburgh Pirates2.46-2.4%
Sportsbetting.agNew York Yankees1.66-2.6%
BetOnlineNew York Yankees1.66-2.6%
BodogPittsburgh Pirates2.45-2.8%
BovadaPittsburgh Pirates2.45-2.8%
1XBetNew York Yankees1.65-3.1%
Prophet XNew York Yankees1.65-3.3%
ESPN BETNew York Yankees1.65-3.3%
theScoreNew York Yankees1.65-3.3%
SportsbetPittsburgh Pirates2.43-3.6%
KuttNew York Yankees1.64-3.6%
OvertimePittsburgh Pirates2.43-3.6%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

BC.Game is quoting the moneyline at decimal 2.48 for New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB)—a 4.3% departure from where sharp operators have anchored fair value, with 15 hours remaining before first pitch. The mismatch is live as this page loads, not a settled artifact: the pricing window remains open and measurable.

Two patterns from our historical Playbook align with this signal. The strongest has generated +14.3% ROI on closed bets.

Baseball moneyline edges in the mid-odds band carry documented track record: 533 resolved wagers in comparable scenarios have produced +12.2% ROI, showing how regularly such mispricings have materialized and resolved.

Overquotes at this scale tend to compress before the first pitch is thrown. In this market segment, comparable signals have typically corrected within roughly 9 hours as sharp action tightens the consensus.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox @ 2.32
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
FanDuel2.32+0.1%
Bovada2.30-0.8%
Espn-Bet2.30-0.8%
Betanysports2.30-0.8%
1xBet2.29-1.2%
Matchbook2.26-2.5%
BetUS2.25-2.9%
Gtbets2.25-2.9%
BetMGM2.25-2.9%
Coolbet2.25-2.9%
Sport8882.25-2.9%
Everygame2.25-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance

Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).