ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 22, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.4%

Baez–Rinderknech moneyline: Jazz Sports quoting 5.8% soft to sharp consensus, 15 hours to serve

Offered at Jazz Sports2.10Fair price1.98+5.8% above fair

Omenizer detected 27 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
77
Omen Score
+6.6%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Sebastian Baez @ 2.10 — best price at Jazz Sports
Fits 4 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +6.8% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
Jazz SportsSebastian Baez2.10+6.6%
DraftKingsSebastian Baez2.08+5.6%
Unibet (Australia)Sebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
UnibetSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
TABtouchSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
CasumoSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
Bally BetSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
betPARXSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
NorthStar BetsSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
LeoVegasSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
Desert DiamondSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
Four WindsSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
RushBetSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
TwinSpiresSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
SugarHouseSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
BetRiversSebastian Baez2.07+5.1%
BoomersSebastian Baez2.05+4.1%
Hard Rock (Florida)Sebastian Baez2.05+4.1%
Hard RockSebastian Baez2.05+4.1%
Hard Rock (Illinois)Sebastian Baez2.05+4.1%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With 15 hours remaining until Sebastian Baez faces Arthur Rinderknech (ATP World Tour), the moneyline market has fractured across sportsbooks. Jazz Sports is offering decimal odds of 2.10 on one outcome, a 5.8% departure from where sharp operators have anchored their consensus pricing. The mismatch is active right now—this page reflects live odds, and the window to act remains open.

That consensus draws from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair value it represents reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's view.

The setup aligns with 4 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook. The strongest among them has delivered +6.8% ROI on closed bets.

Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band carry documented track record: 1947 settled bets in comparable scenarios have returned +4.6% ROI, illustrating how consistently these pricing splits have resolved in the past.

Mispricings of this size rarely linger through match time. Data suggests edges in this category typically compress within about 12 hours before sharp action reprices the gap toward consensus.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Hynek Barton · ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis — pick Hynek Barton @ 2.20
82 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+16.3%
Entry edge
+17.8%
Edge near close
1.87
Fair price (no-vig)
2.30
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
1
Sharp books
High value
Class
Market state: Limited sharp coverage (1 book) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
12.5%
Recommended stake
14.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe edge survives every de-margining method
+16.3%
Shin
+16.4%
Power
+16.3%
Additive
+5.5%
Worst case
+16.3%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 7.6σ from market consensus.Fairline based on a single sharp source.Limited sharp data for this market.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
1xBet2.20+17.8%
DraftKings1.81-3.3%
Unibet1.78-4.6%
Bet991.77-5.3%
Superbet1.77-5.3%
BetOnline1.77-5.3%
SportsBetting.ag1.77-5.3%
PointsBet1.77-5.3%
Betfair Exchange1.76-5.9%
Overtime Markets1.76-5.9%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76-5.9%
Neds1.75-6.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.20 odds → 45% implied win probability
54%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+5.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Past performance

Based on 1,131 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.4% 🔒
Average return
+1.2% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +5.8% to +8.4% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 19, 18:46 UTC at 2.30 (+16.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.86 → closing-line value +6.3%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.30 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).