ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 22, 2026 09:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.4%
Sebastian BaezvsArthur Rinderknech
Baez–Rinderknech moneyline: Jazz Sports quoting 5.8% soft to sharp consensus, 15 hours to serve
What happened: Final score: 2–1. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.10 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +4.0% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 15 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 61 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 14.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
With 15 hours remaining until Sebastian Baez faces Arthur Rinderknech (ATP World Tour), the moneyline market has fractured across sportsbooks. Jazz Sports is offering decimal odds of 2.10 on one outcome, a 5.8% departure from where sharp operators have anchored their consensus pricing. The mismatch is active right now—this page reflects live odds, and the window to act remains open.
That consensus draws from 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair value it represents reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's view.
The setup aligns with 4 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook. The strongest among them has delivered +6.8% ROI on closed bets.
Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band carry documented track record: 1947 settled bets in comparable scenarios have returned +4.6% ROI, illustrating how consistently these pricing splits have resolved in the past.
Mispricings of this size rarely linger through match time. Data suggests edges in this category typically compress within about 12 hours before sharp action reprices the gap toward consensus.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 22, 2026 11:52 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).