ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 22, 2026 15:08 UTC · avg book margin 7.0%

Victoria BosiovsJustina Maria Gonzalez Daniele

Bosio's 1.37 moneyline at Bodog: 13.4% soft against consensus, market tightened before the 2–0 win

Offered at Bodog1.37Fair price1.21+13.4% above fair

Omenizer detected 11 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

An ITF Women moneyline between Victoria Bosio and Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele opened with one bookmaker—Bodog—pricing the favorite at decimal 1.37. The consensus-adjusted fair price sat 13.4% lower. The board surfaced the signal while the mispricing remained live.

Bosio won 2–0. A 1-unit bet at the flagged odds returned +0.37 units.

The closing line is what matters. By kickoff, Bodog had compressed its price by +0.5% in the backer's direction—closing-line value that professionals use to measure edge quality. Results bounce; market movement doesn't.

Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band have recorded +10.5% ROI across 643 settled bets since tracking began.

Detection runs live when bookmakers update prices, not after matches conclude. The board flags these inefficiencies while windows remain open for action.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Victoria Bosio vs Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 24, 2026 12:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).