ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 22, 2026 15:08 UTC · avg book margin 7.0%

Bosio's 1.37 moneyline at Bodog: 13.4% soft against consensus, market tightened before the 2–0 win

Offered at Bodog1.37Fair price1.21+13.4% above fair

Omenizer detected 11 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

An ITF Women moneyline between Victoria Bosio and Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele opened with one bookmaker—Bodog—pricing the favorite at decimal 1.37. The consensus-adjusted fair price sat 13.4% lower. The board surfaced the signal while the mispricing remained live.

Bosio won 2–0. A 1-unit bet at the flagged odds returned +0.37 units.

The closing line is what matters. By kickoff, Bodog had compressed its price by +0.5% in the backer's direction—closing-line value that professionals use to measure edge quality. Results bounce; market movement doesn't.

Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band have recorded +10.5% ROI across 643 settled bets since tracking began.

Detection runs live when bookmakers update prices, not after matches conclude. The board flags these inefficiencies while windows remain open for action.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech · ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez @ 2.00
77 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.8%
Entry edge
+4.8%
Edge near close
+0.7%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.91
Fair price (no-vig)
2.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
5.3%
Recommended stake
4.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Sx.Bet2.01+5.3%
Novig2.00+4.8%
CampoBet2.00+4.8%
DraftKings1.99+4.3%
Matchbook1.98+3.8%
Betfair Exchange1.97+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97+3.3%
Bet1051.96+2.8%
Winpot1.96+2.8%
Ninja Casino1.96+2.8%
Bodog1.95+2.3%
Betano1.95+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance

Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Victoria Bosio vs Justina Maria Gonzalez Daniele is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 24, 2026 12:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).