ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 22, 2026 04:12 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%
Charoenphon–Hirose ITF moneyline: 15.0% mispricing at Hard Rock compressed before serve, closing prices vindicated the call
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 667 live signals across 317 matches, found the same way.
Hard Rock posted decimal odds of 1.69 on one side of the Yuttana Charoenphon vs Yuya Hirose ITF Men matchup—a 15.0% gap versus sharp consensus. The board surfaced the signal before first serve, when bettors could still act on the inefficiency.
Charoenphon took it 2–0. The flagged bet delivered +0.69 units on a flat 1-unit stake.
Individual scorelines are noise. What matters: by serve time, Hard Rock's price had shifted +5.8% toward the backed side. That closing-line value—the market's own course correction—is how professionals distinguish real edge from luck. CLV survives variance; results do not.
Across 614 completed signals in this segment (tennis moneyline, fav-range prices), the board has logged +11.2% ROI.
Detection runs live—the algorithm flags mispricings the moment bookmakers post them, before the match begins. This page reflects that real-time capture, not post-hoc commentary. The board remains active while betting windows are open.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez
@ 2.00
77Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Sx.Bet
2.01
+5.3%
Novig
2.00
+4.8%
CampoBet
2.00
+4.8%
DraftKings
1.99
+4.3%
Matchbook
1.98
+3.8%
Betfair Exchange
1.97
+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.97
+3.3%
Bet105
1.96
+2.8%
Winpot
1.96
+2.8%
Ninja Casino
1.96
+2.8%
Bodog
1.95
+2.3%
Betano
1.95
+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance
Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Yuttana Charoenphon vs Yuya Hirose
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 23, 2026 05:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).