ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 23, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%

Andrea de MarchivsLorenzo Comino

Moneyline: 6.1% overvalue at Rushbet compressed before serve, market vindicated the edge

Offered at Rushbet1.50Fair price1.41+6.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 486 live signals across 183 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Rushbet's moneyline for the ITF Men clash between Andrea de Marchi and Lorenzo Comino opened at decimal 1.50—a 6.1% mispricing versus sharp consensus. The board caught the signal pre-match, while the inefficiency remained live for bettors to exploit.

Lorenzo Comino prevailed 2–1. The flagged bet lost. Single matches produce binary noise; we report outcomes without filter or bias.

What signals quality is not the result—it is market movement. By serve time, Rushbet had shifted its price +5.8% toward the backed side, closing-line value that professionals treat as the true measure of edge. CLV persists across variance; results do not.

The segment spanning tennis moneyline signals at these odds depths has posted +10.5% ROI across 640 settled bets.

Real-time detection fires when bookmakers post prices, not when final scores land. The live board flags these gaps while betting windows remain accessible.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Andrea de Marchi vs Lorenzo Comino is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 24, 2026 05:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).