ITF Women · Tennis · Jul 23, 2026 19:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%

Dana Guzman vs Anastasia Kulikova: moneyline mispriced 12.6% at Rushbet — market corrected before the match, a pattern that compounds

Offered at Rushbet2.02Fair price1.79+12.7% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 645 live signals across 305 matches, found the same way.

Our board caught a moneyline inefficiency in Dana Guzman vs Anastasia Kulikova (ITF Women): Rushbet quoted decimal 2.02, which sat 12.6% above the sharp consensus. The signal was live while bettors could still act on it.

Match ended 2–0. The flagged bet did not cash—individual match outcomes are essentially random, and we publish losses without filtering.

What professionals track is market direction: by kickoff, Rushbet had moved the price +2.6% in the backer's favor. That closing-line value matters because it shows the edge was real, independent of whether this particular match went the way the odds suggested.

Tennis moneyline signals in this odds band—across 2129 settled bets—have delivered +5.9% ROI. Single results tell you almost nothing; aggregate CLV tells you everything.

Detection runs live, when bookmakers post prices. This page and the live board publish signals while the market is still open for action—never after the final set.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech · ATP World Tour · Tennis — pick Sebastian Baez @ 2.00
77 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.8%
Entry edge
+4.8%
Edge near close
+0.7%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.91
Fair price (no-vig)
2.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
5.3%
Recommended stake
4.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.8%
Shin
+5.8%
Power
+5.8%
Additive
-1.2%
Worst case
+5.8%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Sx.Bet2.01+5.3%
Novig2.00+4.8%
CampoBet2.00+4.8%
DraftKings1.99+4.3%
Matchbook1.98+3.8%
Betfair Exchange1.97+3.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97+3.3%
Bet1051.96+2.8%
Winpot1.96+2.8%
Ninja Casino1.96+2.8%
Bodog1.95+2.3%
Betano1.95+2.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.00 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+5.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.8% settled ROI on 41% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +6.7% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.4% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +2.3% settled ROI on 44% winners
Past performance

Based on 357 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+4.4% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.2% 🔒
Average return
+1.4% 🔒
Beat the closing line
34%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +4.0% to +5.9% 🔒
Statistically reliable loser: even the best case still loses
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 21, 18:05 UTC at 2.10 (+5.8% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +4.0%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Dana Guzman vs Anastasia Kulikova is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Jul 25, 2026 05:23 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).