Cardinals–Diamondbacks totals show 2.1% mispricing 2 hours before first pitch
What happened: Final score: 6–10. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +0.91 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-3.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 hours after detection before the edge closed.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 1.9 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The over–under for St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) has split across bookmakers with 2 hours until game time. One side is currently quoted 2.1% above where independent sharp operators have anchored fair value. This is an active mispricing window, not retrospective analysis—the edge persists as this page loads.
Our Playbook identifies 1 historical pattern matching this setup. That pattern has recorded +37.2% ROI across closed bets.
Mispricings of this size and type do not typically endure until first pitch. Historical data from comparable totals edges shows these gaps compress within roughly 20 hours as sharp action reprices the market.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 24, 2026 05:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).