ATP World Tour · Tennis · Jul 24, 2026 17:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.4%
Jaime FariavsLuciano Darderi
Faria–Darderi moneyline trades 5.6% soft at Betway, 19 hours from serve
What happened: Final score: 1–2. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +0.8% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 19 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 31 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 19 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline for Jaime Faria vs Luciano Darderi (ATP World Tour) splits the betting market with 19 hours left to first serve. Betway's decimal odds of 2.78 on one side sit 5.6% below where three independent sharp sources have clustered fair value. The gap is live now; it persists as you read this.
The consensus reflects distributed professional judgment—three separate sharp operators anchor it, so the edge is not one book's isolated view.
Our Playbook identifies 3 historical patterns aligned with this signal. The pattern with the strongest track record has realized +8.0% ROI on settled bets.
Tennis moneyline bets at mid-range odds have a documented record: across 2090 settled wagers, this exact market segment has returned +6.0% ROI.
Mispricings of this scale do not hold until serve. Comparable edges in this market have historically tightened within about 12 hours as sharp capital reprices.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Jaime Faria vs Luciano Darderi
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 24, 2026 21:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).