Pirates 2, Cubs 3: Tipico's totals mispricing worth 7.0% cashed before first pitch
A totals market at Tipico opened with decimal odds of 1.80 ahead of Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs (MLB), pricing 7.0% softer than sharp consensus. The board caught the inefficiency while the window remained open and bettors could act on it.
Pittsburgh Pirates 2, Chicago Cubs 3. The flagged position cashed, yielding +0.80 units on a 1-unit flat stake.
Detection runs live—when bookmakers post prices, not when the scoreboard updates. The same algorithm that surfaces these edges every day publishes signals while betting windows are still active, before the game starts.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled match
PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
· MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox
@ 2.32
99
Omen Score
Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
| Bookmaker | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 2.32 | +0.1% |
| Bovada | 2.30 | -0.8% |
| Espn-Bet | 2.30 | -0.8% |
| Betanysports | 2.30 | -0.8% |
| 1xBet | 2.29 | -1.2% |
| Matchbook | 2.26 | -2.5% |
| BetUS | 2.25 | -2.9% |
| Gtbets | 2.25 | -2.9% |
| BetMGM | 2.25 | -2.9% |
| Coolbet | 2.25 | -2.9% |
| Sport888 | 2.25 | -2.9% |
| Everygame | 2.25 | -2.9% |
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance
+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
is on the member board now ·
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