MLB · Baseball · Jul 24, 2026 23:10 UTC · avg book margin 7.2%

Totals market splits on Rays-Guardians: 2.2% edge visible 4 hours before first pitch

Offered2.37Fair price2.32+2.1% above fair
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
93
Omen Score
+2.2%
Edge vs sharp consensus
80
Confidence
7
Sharp sources
Pick: Over Tampa Bay Rays|4.5 @ 2.37
Fits 6 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +13.3% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
YouWagerTampa Bay Rays1.85+1.3%
Prime SportsCleveland Guardians2.27+1.2%
SharpTampa Bay Rays1.85+0.9%
BetOpenlyTampa Bay Rays1.84+0.5%
KuttCleveland Guardians2.25+0.3%
Prime SportsTampa Bay Rays1.83+0.1%
NovigCleveland Guardians2.22-1.0%
SX BetCleveland Guardians2.22-1.0%
Prophet XCleveland Guardians2.22-1.0%
Matchbook ExchangeCleveland Guardians2.22-1.0%
EverygameTampa Bay Rays1.81-1.0%
BetUSTampa Bay Rays1.81-1.3%
BoomersTampa Bay Rays1.81-1.3%
STN SportsCleveland Guardians2.21-1.5%
bet105Cleveland Guardians2.21-1.5%
KuttTampa Bay Rays1.80-1.7%
TAB (New Zealand)Tampa Bay Rays1.80-1.7%
NedsTampa Bay Rays1.80-1.7%
Ladbrokes (Australia)Tampa Bay Rays1.80-1.7%
BetAnythingTampa Bay Rays1.80-1.7%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With 4 hours remaining until first pitch in Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB), the totals market has fractured across sportsbooks—one side is currently priced 2.2% above where independent sharp operators have anchored consensus. The mispricing window is active as this page renders, not historical.

When prices scatter this wide across books, the market is telling you someone has mispriced. Sharp consensus reveals which side has been undervalued.

Seven independent sharp sources converge on the consensus line, meaning the edge reflects aggregated professional calibration rather than one operator's isolated position.

The setup aligns with 6 patterns from our historical Playbook, with the strongest documented instance returning +13.3% ROI on closed wagers.

In the baseball totals segment at comparable odds, tracked bets have posted +1.6% ROI across 1236 settled wagers—a baseline for how often such dislocations reverse in this exact category.

Mispricings this size rarely hold through to game time. Historical data from this market segment shows comparable edges have typically tightened within roughly 20 hours as sharp action reprices the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox @ 2.32
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
FanDuel2.32+0.1%
Bovada2.30-0.8%
Espn-Bet2.30-0.8%
Betanysports2.30-0.8%
1xBet2.29-1.2%
Matchbook2.26-2.5%
BetUS2.25-2.9%
Gtbets2.25-2.9%
BetMGM2.25-2.9%
Coolbet2.25-2.9%
Sport8882.25-2.9%
Everygame2.25-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance

Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).