MLB · Baseball · Jul 26, 2026 18:10 UTC · avg book margin 6.4%

Minnesota Twins–Athletics totals market splits 2.7% wide, 1 hour to first pitch

What happened: Final score: 11–8. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.12 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 76 minutes after detection before the edge closed.
Offered2.12Fair price2.06+2.7% above fair

With 1 hour remaining before Minnesota Twins vs Athletics (MLB), the totals market has fractured across sportsbooks. One side is priced 2.7% above the consensus fair value derived from independent sharp operators—a live discrepancy that persists as this page updates.

When bookmakers price the same outcome differently, disagreement usually means mispricing. The sharp consensus reveals which direction the gap runs.

68 independent sharp sources have converged on the fair line in this market, so the consensus reflects distributed professional judgment rather than a single operator's view.

This signal matches 3 historically profitable patterns in our Playbook. The strongest of these has generated +36.6% ROI on settled bets.

Baseball totals bets in this odds range carry measurable track record: +1.3% ROI across 1246 settled wagers in our records. This segment shows how often such edges have resolved.

Mispricings of this width rarely persist to first pitch. In comparable totals markets, prices have typically reequilibrated within roughly 20 hours as sharp action reprices.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox @ 2.32
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
FanDuel2.32+0.1%
Bovada2.30-0.8%
Espn-Bet2.30-0.8%
Betanysports2.30-0.8%
1xBet2.29-1.2%
Matchbook2.26-2.5%
BetUS2.25-2.9%
Gtbets2.25-2.9%
BetMGM2.25-2.9%
Coolbet2.25-2.9%
Sport8882.25-2.9%
Everygame2.25-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance

Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Minnesota Twins vs Athletics is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Jul 26, 2026 21:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).