MLB · Baseball · Jul 26, 2026 23:20 UTC · avg book margin 6.9%
Phillies-Yankees totals split across books — one side trading 2.1% soft to sharp consensus, 2 hours before first pitch
What happened: Final score: 11–4. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.13 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +3.6% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 hours after detection before the edge closed.
The totals market for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees (MLB) has fractured across sportsbooks with 2 hours remaining. One outcome is currently quoted at a 2.1% discount to where independent sharp sources have positioned the fair line. The mispricing is live as this page loads — the window for arbitrage has not yet closed.
A coalition of 78 independent sharp operators underpins the consensus, eliminating any single book's bias from the calculation.
Our Playbook matches this setup against 2 historically profitable templates. The highest-performing comparable has delivered +36.6% ROI on closed bets.
The record in this specific niche is documented: baseball totals at these odds levels have generated +1.2% ROI across 1247 settled wagers, showing how often edges in this band have actually resolved.
Totals mispricings at this magnitude typically erode before game time. Historical precedent suggests comparable edges have compressed within roughly 20 hours as sharp activity reprices.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles
· MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox
@ 2.32
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
FanDuel
2.32
+0.1%
Bovada
2.30
-0.8%
Espn-Bet
2.30
-0.8%
Betanysports
2.30
-0.8%
1xBet
2.29
-1.2%
Matchbook
2.26
-2.5%
BetUS
2.25
-2.9%
Gtbets
2.25
-2.9%
BetMGM
2.25
-2.9%
Coolbet
2.25
-2.9%
Sport888
2.25
-2.9%
Everygame
2.25
-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance
Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 27, 2026 02:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).