MLB · Baseball · Jul 27, 2026 23:40 UTC · avg book margin 6.7%

White Sox–Yankees totals market shows 2.2% mispricing with 1 hours until first pitch

Offered2.03Fair price1.99+2.2% above fair
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
KuttChicago White Sox2.35+0.2%
Tailgate ExchangeNew York Yankees1.76-0.8%
NovigNew York Yankees1.75-1.4%
SX BetChicago White Sox2.31-1.5%
Tailgate ExchangeChicago White Sox2.31-1.5%
4CxNew York Yankees1.75-1.8%
FliffChicago White Sox2.30-1.9%
NovigChicago White Sox2.30-1.9%
bet105Chicago White Sox2.30-1.9%
STN SportsChicago White Sox2.30-1.9%
Hard RockChicago White Sox2.30-1.9%
Hard Rock (Florida)Chicago White Sox2.30-1.9%
EverygameChicago White Sox2.30-1.9%
KuttNew York Yankees1.74-2.1%
BetOpenlyNew York Yankees1.74-2.1%
4CxChicago White Sox2.29-2.4%
SX BetNew York Yankees1.74-2.4%
Prophet XChicago White Sox2.29-2.4%
BetDEXNew York Yankees1.73-2.7%
Prophet XNew York Yankees1.73-2.7%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the New York Yankees (MLB), the totals market is reflecting disagreement across sportsbooks. One side of the market is currently trading 2.2% above where independent sharp operators have anchored fair value — a pricing gap that exists right now, before the first pitch is thrown.

When sportsbooks scatter across a market, it signals that not all of them have priced correctly. The sharp consensus identifies which direction carries the mispricing.

This consensus draws from 70 independent sharp sources, meaning the underlying fair-value estimate reflects aggregated professional opinion rather than any single operator's reading.

The Playbook identifies 3 historically profitable patterns that match this setup, with the strongest pattern having realized +36.6% ROI on settled bets.

This signal lives in a data-rich corner of the market: baseball totals at these price levels have produced +1.4% ROI across 1253 closed bets in our historical record.

Mispricings of this magnitude tend not to survive to gameday. Comparable totals edges have historically tightened within roughly 20 hours as professional money reprices the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles · MLB · Baseball — pick Boston Red Sox @ 2.32
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.5%
Entry edge
+0.1%
Edge near close
+0.0%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.32
Fair price (no-vig)
2.50
Entry odds
Quality
60/100
Confidence
2
Sharp books
Standard
Class
Market state: Sharp consensus (2 books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.7%
Recommended stake
0.1%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.9%
Shin
+1.7%
Power
+2.5%
Additive
-4.9%
Worst case
+2.5%
Multiplicative
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
FanDuel2.32+0.1%
Bovada2.30-0.8%
Espn-Bet2.30-0.8%
Betanysports2.30-0.8%
1xBet2.29-1.2%
Matchbook2.26-2.5%
BetUS2.25-2.9%
Gtbets2.25-2.9%
BetMGM2.25-2.9%
Coolbet2.25-2.9%
Sport8882.25-2.9%
Everygame2.25-2.9%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.32 odds → 43% implied win probability
43%
Fair win probability
+1.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.2% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Baseball) — +26.5% settled ROI on 53% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Baseball) — +23.3% settled ROI on 57% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Baseball) — +14.7% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
Past performance

Based on 58 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+1.2% 🔒
Closing line value
+2.7% 🔒
Average return
+2.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
59%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +7.2% to +3.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:54 UTC at 2.50 (+2.5% edge) → fair price at close 2.32 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.50 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).